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Weather Forecasting at the Service of Solar Performance

· 2 min read
Giordano Favaro
Giordano Favaro
Co-Founder & Managing Director of Novasense Ltd

Since June 1st, 2025, we have been using Meteotest’s weather data to calculate theoretical power output and short-term production forecasts for our solar assets. And we’re genuinely impressed by the accuracy of these forecasts — even on challenging days with intermittent cloud cover.

A Robust Methodology for Reliable Benchmarking​

Our theoretical production is calculated using our in-house physics-based model, which simulates expected output based on plant-specific parameters and detailed meteorological inputs. The integration of Meteotest’s high-resolution weather data into this model allows us to benchmark measured and theoretical production with exceptional accuracy across a wide range of weather conditions.

Power Forecasting

The use of satellite-derived meteorological data, calibrated with ground-based observations, has proven to be both a reliable and scalable solution. It allows us to precise detect performance anomalies even in the absence of on-site pyranometers, which is a significant advantage for fleet-wide monitoring. By removing the risk of bias introduced by poorly maintained or miscalibrated sensors, we ensure a consistent and objective basis for performance comparison. This approach brings clear value to our clients — enabling faster root-cause analysis, more accurate anomaly detection, and greater operational efficiency, all without compromising on precision.

The Growing Importance of Short-Term Forecasts​

As solar energy continues to gain ground in the European power mix, short-term forecasting becomes increasingly strategic. Negative electricity prices are appearing more frequently, forcing many solar plant owners to explore alternative strategies such as self-consumption, energy storage, or — in extreme cases — temporarily curtailing production. Accurate and timely solar production forecasts allow these actors to make informed, data-driven decisions that help them protect revenues and minimize losses.

A Strategic Asset for Energy Trading​

Our forecasts are available both at the individual plant level and at the portfolio scale. This level of granularity enables plant owners, operators, aggregators, and traders to fully leverage a powerful decision-making tool based on precise, context-aware, and reliable data.